ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 012226 SPC MCD 012226 TXZ000-020000- Mesoscale Discussion 0326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66... Valid 012226Z - 020000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66. Very large hail and hurricane-force gusts will remain possible with the strongest storms through evening, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms may develop farther south across southwestern into central TX and local WW extensions or new watches may eventually become necessary. DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, including supercells, have been progressing eastward across portions of northwestern TX with a history of up to baseball sized hail and near 90 mph measured gusts. Diurnal heating ahead of the ongoing line of storms has allowed for surface temperatures to warm to over 80 F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, minimizing CINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Buoyancy is modest, but more than adequate in supporting continued significant-severe weather given the presence of 80+ kts of effective bulk shear (driven by a 30+ kt low-level jet overspread by over 80 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow). As such, the more sustained supercell structures may continue to produce severe hail in the 2-3 inch diameter range, along with severe gusts peaking between 75-90 mph. The best chance for significant-severe storms will be over northwestern into north-central TX, where deep-layer ascent is the strongest. Additionally, regional VADs and 22Z mesoanalysis does show some slight low-level hodograph curvature, suggesting that a tornado cannot be ruled out as well. Farther south, storms are attempting to develop closer to the Rio Grande. However, overall forcing for ascent is weaker, raising questions pertaining to storm coverage. Still, given the strong deep-layer shear present, any storms that can mature and become sustained will present a severe hail/wind risk. A local spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 66 may be needed if confidence in convective coverage increases farther south into southern and central TX. ..Squitieri.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29080091 29730135 30990084 31810003 32809879 32969812 32999740 32939686 32789678 32429708 32059749 31029868 30130005 29080091 NNNN