ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011946 
SPC MCD 011946 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011946Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging
winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this
afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front
within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within
southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of
small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone
may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of
40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially
organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how
intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level
height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short
term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial
severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750
            39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298 

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