ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 312226 SPC MCD 312226 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-010030- Mesoscale Discussion 0317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 312226Z - 010030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe hail will accompany ongoing elevated supercell in west-central IL, moving into central IL, in the near term. Convective initiation is more uncertain farther south along the warm front in northern MO given weak forcing. Buoyancy and shear does favor severe storm development should convective initiation occur. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell in west-central IL, with a history of marginally severe hail, persists within strong zonal mid-level flow to the north of a warm front. Strong 850-700 mb WAA continues to advect adequate moisture ahead of the supercell in central IL, boosting MUCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (per 21Z mesoanalysis). Meanwhile the stronger southwesterly WAA beneath 60+ kt westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved but elongated hodographs. As such, severe hail development may persist with this supercell for a couple more hours. Meanwhile, surface-based convective initiation from agitated CU farther south along the warm front, draped from roughly Linn County MO to Jasper County IL, remains uncertain in the absence of strong forcing. Surface heating has boosted MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range amid stronger deep-layer shear (i.e. elongated and curved hodographs supporting 60+ kts of effective bulk shear). As such, any storms that can initiate and become sustained may produce severe hail/wind. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of convective initiation over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39919320 40399240 40689096 40678934 40358816 39788775 39208768 38848780 38788853 39149028 39539183 39669268 39919320 NNNN