ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 302027 SPC MCD 302027 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302300- Mesoscale Discussion 0313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302027Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass destabilization. This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430 40018520 40828361 NNNN