ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 241903 SPC MCD 241903 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242100- Mesoscale Discussion 0292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241903Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume. Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general. As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX, as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly, perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively wider area. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084 37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915 37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903 32799964 32590007 32580108 NNNN