ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230213 
SPC MCD 230213 
FLZ000-230415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Areas affected...South Florida and the Florida Keys

Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

Valid 230213Z - 230415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the Florida Keys, and
is expected to develop and increase over the southern Florida
Peninsula over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Key West shows a
cluster of strong to severe storms over the waters to the north of
and just south of Key West. Well-organized and strongly rotating
supercells appear to be ongoing within this cluster. The cluster
will move eastward across the Florida Keys vicinity over the next
couple of hours. Additional storms are expected to develop across
the southern Florida Peninsula. According to the RAP, MLCAPE in the
Florida Keys is generally near or above 1000 J/kg, with somewhat
weaker instability in south Florida. The WSR-88D VWP at Key West
still has an impressive shear environment, with 0-6 km shear at 60
knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2.  This should
continue support a tornado threat with supercells, and a strong
tornado will be possible with the any supercell that becomes
intense. A wind-damage and isolated large hail will also likely
accompany the stronger storms. If a line segment can become
organized, then the wind-damage threat will likely increase as well.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24898228 24448240 24318183 24678078 25038026 25388021
            25648040 25738076 25748134 25628177 25368204 24898228 

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