ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221821 
SPC MCD 221821 
FLZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Areas affected...far southern FL toward the Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221821Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms from far southern Florida toward the Keys may
remain capable of producing waterspouts, with an eventual
possibility of a brief tornado.

DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage near an east-west
oriented boundary situation over far southern FL. North of this
boundary, surface winds remain out of the east/northeast, and
through a relatively deep layer. VWPs near Miami show around 2 km
depth of east to southeasterly winds. Farther south toward Key West,
winds have veered to southerly, and this area is also within the
instability plume with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg. 

Although instability is less over land, enhanced vertical vorticity
exists along the boundary, and the gradual increase in theta-e, as
well as increasing flow aloft, could yield a more favorable
environment for a brief tornado with time.

VWPs and objective analysis generally indicate 0-1 SRH below 100
m2/s2, however, these values appear to be slowly increasing. In
addition, as the cluster of storms persists, further shear
enhancement could occur due to convectively induced pressure falls.

At this time, a watch does not appear necessary due to the low-end
nature of the threat as well as minimal land area.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25118035 24948056 24888137 24938159 25068164 25308144
            25498111 25538080 25498022 25358019 25118035 

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