ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141524 
SPC MCD 141524 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK...western/northern AR...and
southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141524Z - 141700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being closely monitored for robust thunderstorm
development this morning. If convection forms, it would quickly
become severe and warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...12Z soundings from OUN, FWD, SHV, and LZK all show a
stout cap in place in the 850-700 mb layer. Still, recent visible
satellite trends show the cu field across eastern OK into
northwestern AR is slowly building and becoming somewhat more
agitated as filtered daytime heating occurs. A rich, moist low-level
airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s, is
already in place across this area and into southern MO along/south
of a convectively reinforced boundary. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates is also contributing to substantial
instability, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced
southwesterly low-level flow veers and gradually strengthens with
height through mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 40-50 kt
of deep-layer shear.

Primary uncertainty is when robust convection will initiate, as
forcing aloft remains nebulous/subtle, with mid-level heights
generally remaining neutral or slightly rising over the next couple
of hours. But, if convection forms on the earlier side of what
convection-allowing guidance suggests is possible, namely in the
next 1-2 hours, then it would quickly become severe given the rather
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. Large to
very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes all appear
possible if thunderstorms can initiate with the gradual erosion of
the cap. While not immediately likely, observational and convective
trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing
thunderstorm potential this morning, which could necessitate watch
issuance before noon.

..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34529533 36559452 37089324 36919246 36119228 35129287
            34329370 34069442 34179509 34529533 

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