ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132331 
SPC MCD 132331 
OKZ000-KSZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132331Z - 140100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across
northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this
region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in
place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would
indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40
corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage
County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains
limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a
thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large
hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing
across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence
in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to
be needed.

..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539
            37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691
            35219665 35279600 35599543 

NNNN