ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 132054 SPC MCD 132054 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132300- Mesoscale Discussion 0219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132054Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon along a warm-frontal corridor across northern KS and western MO. Supercells capable of hazards are likely. A WW will likely be needed late this afternoon or early this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite showed a steadily deepening cumulus field along a sharpening warm-frontal zone across parts of northern KS and western MO. Towering cumulus was also noted along a trailing dryline into parts of southeastern KS. Water-vapor imagery shows large-scale ascent from a passing shortwave-trough will move overhead late this afternoon and continue through the evening. With strong low-level moisture advection ongoing, the air mass along and south of the front should continue to destabilize as ascent and diurnal heating work to remove inhibition. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F should support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm organization into supercells appears likely. Experimental WOFS and other Hi-res guidance suggest storm development may be delayed until more robust ascent (currently depicted over eastern CO/western KS) arrives late this afternoon into the early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22 C and low/mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, severe hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging gusts appear likely with the strongest storms. Initially the tornado threat is more uncertain given the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture and storm motions potentially crossing the front. However, backed surface winds and relatively large forecast ESRH of 200-400 m2/s2 along the warm front may support a risk for a couple tornadoes with the more organized supercells. The tornado threat should increase into the evening as dewpoint spreads decrease and hodographs enlarge coincident with enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet. Given the increasingly favorable environment for severe storms, a weather watch will be needed sometime this afternoon. Exact timing may be somewhat uncertain, but current projections suggest storm initiation is possible by 22-23z. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38049610 38499728 38729809 38889839 39319849 39769806 40149717 40209671 40239591 40209526 40059456 39719332 39129257 38799264 38319322 38059511 38049610 NNNN