ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092057 
SPC MCD 092057 
FLZ000-GAZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...North FL into extreme southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092057Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist through late afternoon,
though the threat should become increasingly isolated with time.

DISCUSSION...A prefrontal convective band is ongoing from north FL
into extreme southeast GA late this afternoon. In general, storms
have gradually become less organized with time, possibly due to weak
surface convergence ahead of the cold front and relatively limited
large-scale ascent. However, buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and
deep-layer flow/shear (effective shear of 50-60 kt) are still
favorable for organized convection, and a couple stronger
cells/clusters cannot be ruled out through the remainder of the
afternoon. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado will
continue to be the main hazards, though with the threat expected to
become increasingly isolated with time, new watch issuance after the
4 PM EST expiration of WW 34 is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29888392 30668248 31018152 30618126 30198124 29898148
            29618222 29498272 29478308 29528357 29888392 

NNNN