ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 072006 SPC MCD 072006 TXZ000-072200- Mesoscale Discussion 0199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Big Country/Concho Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072006Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase later this afternoon. A couple of supercells will be possible, with a threat of large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass is ongoing this afternoon, mainly to the south and west of a band of elevated convection extending from west-central to north-central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the increasing moisture are supporting MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, though poor upper-level lapse rates within a cirrus plume are likely limiting the depth of stronger buoyancy. Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear of 60+ kt across the region, more than sufficient for organized storms. The details of storm initiation and coverage remain somewhat uncertain, though continued heating and diminishing MLCINH will likely support isolated to widely scattered storm development along a diffuse dryline later this afternoon. Some increasing cumulus has also been noted near San Angelo, in the vicinity of an apparent outflow boundary, where surface winds are backed to more of an easterly direction. This boundary could serve as a focus for storm initiation as well, or else provide a favored corridor for storms that move in from the west late this afternoon or early this evening. With favorable shear in place, at least a couple supercells could develop by late afternoon, posing a threat of hail (potentially in the 1.5 to 2 inch diameter range) and localized severe gusts. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially where surface winds are backed near the remnant outflow boundary. Watch issuance is possible by 4 PM CST if convective initiation appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30830180 31650207 32160196 32640146 33250079 33279938 33209863 32619856 31709881 31159915 30829937 30639963 30510042 30520102 30720161 30830180 NNNN