ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280444 
SPC MCD 280444 
MIZ000-280645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Areas affected...Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27...

Valid 280444Z - 280645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail and wind threat continues with convection across
southern lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized MCS that progressed across southern Lake
MI has advanced into lower MI, sustained in part by low-level warm
advection. MCV has lifted north-northeast to a position about 20 mi
west-southwest of MKG. While the overall complex is not quite as
organized, one supercell in particular over eastern Van Buren County
MI likely remains severe as it tracks east toward Kalamazoo County.
This southern storm is most likely slightly elevated in nature, and
forecast soundings suggest the most buoyant parcels are near 1 km
AGL. Hail/wind remain the primary risks within this warm-advection
activity. Severe threat will gradually spread northeast across the
remainder of ww26 over the next several hours.

..Darrow.. 02/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42958559 42998445 42548379 41768352 41768417 41948497
            41998630 42958559 

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