ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280228 
SPC MCD 280228 
MIZ000-INZ000-280330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Areas affected...Lower Michigan and northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 280228Z - 280330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across lower Michigan and
northern Indiana late this evening. Wind/hail are the primary risks.
Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued to account for these
risks.

DISCUSSION...High-level diffluent flow is overspreading the central
Great Lakes this evening ahead of progressive MS Valley short-wave
trough. Boundary-layer moisture has increased substantially across
lower MI where mid 50s surface dew points are currently observed.
While surface-based instability is currently capped, sustained
ascent/moistening aloft will contribute to substantial, weakly
inhibited buoyancy by mid evening. Forecast soundings across this
region suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield MUCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/kg.

Convection that developed over northern IL has grown upscale and is
now a mature MCS as it spreads across the western portion of
southern Lake MI. Additionally, a well-defined MCV has evolved near
the lakeshore over eastern Lake County. While it's not entirely
clear how this complex of storms will be affected as it spreads
east, sustained low-level warm advection and steep lapse rates
suggest this activity will likely have longevity as it spreads
across lake MI into lower MI. While the ongoing storm mode and
forecast soundings suggest hail/wind will be the primary risks, a
brief tornado can not be ruled out.

..Darrow/Edwards.. 02/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42808670 43198441 42308381 41818470 41518676 42808670 

NNNN