ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230012 
SPC MCD 230012 
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230012Z - 230215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and gusty winds this evening. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 00z, regional radar analysis showed isolated
thunderstorms over parts of central and northern AR. Over the past
30-45 min, a few of these storms have shown occasional weak
supercell characteristics and deeper reflectively cores. The
environment is still relatively limited with only 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While not overly robust, the
environment should remain capable of supporting marginal storm
organization for a few hours this evening as storms move
southeastward. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 c/km and 25-30 kt of
effective shear may allow for marginally severe hail and or strong
outflow winds from the strongest storms. The severe threat should
gradually wane through the later evening hours as the loss of
diurnal heating and nocturnal stabilization work to weaken ongoing
storms. Given the limited potential for storm organization, and the
isolated nature of the severe threat, a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35049424 35359424 35889333 35869222 35779123 35759110
            35258993 34898958 33918983 33359061 33419208 34379390
            35049424 

NNNN