ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221941 
SPC MCD 221941 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and far
western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221941Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are forecast to gradually form near a
cold front as it moves from southern Missouri into northern
Arkansas. A few storms may produce marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a mixture of cloud
cover across the area, with distinct areas of heating. Recently,
low-topped convection has begun to form along western portions of
the area along the front, within a convergence zone. Area VWPs
indicate the front is several km deep, which will aid boundary-layer
lift and eventual cap breakage.

As gradual low-level warming occurs from the southwest, inhibition
will eventually be eroded near the front/surface trough. Although
moisture is limited with less than 1.00" PWAT and dewpoints in the
50s F, cool temperatures aloft will allow for 500 to perhaps as much
as 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but
favorable deep-layer shear exists primarily above 500 mb. As such, a
few storms this afternoon and into the early evening may produce
marginal severe hail, with strong wind potential most likely late as
storms produce aggregate outflow and propagate east/southeast toward
northern MS.

..Jewell/Kerr.. 02/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35739376 36179356 36409259 37009063 37028986 36368942
            35798966 35279068 34939214 34959328 35249362 35739376 

NNNN