ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181518 
SPC MCD 181518 
FLZ000-181715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

Areas affected...FL Keys and extreme south FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181518Z - 181715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado and localized damaging wind swath will be
possible as a short-line segment spreads across the Keys and extreme
south Florida into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A thin and short-line segment is apparent near the Dry
Tortugas into the FL Straits, within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. The north portion of this segment has shown
storm-scale organization, with broad rotation and comma-head
reflectivity structure. This appears to be near/along the
quasi-stationary front that is draped between the Keys and the
Everglades, east through about Key Largo. 12Z guidance suggest this
boundary will attempt to advance north into early afternoon across
south portions of mainland Monroe and Miami-Dade counties. It is
plausible that the organizational structure of the short-line
segment may be maintained east along the baroclinic zone with an
embedded tornado and severe wind threat. Background environment does
have limiting factors such as very poor mid-level lapse rates
(700-500 mb from 4.5 to 5 C/km per 12Z Key West and Miami soundings)
and minimal change in wind speeds between 1 to 3 km AGL. This
suggests that any severe threat will be quite localized and focused
along the surface front.

..Grams/Hart.. 02/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25028199 25508096 25868017 25767997 25387996 24618093
            24268232 24908223 25028199 

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