ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170040 
SPC MCD 170040 
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-170445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 170040Z - 170445Z

SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread
east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central
Appalachians through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of
moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and
middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this
band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times,
indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports
over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of
3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air
analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent
ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more
focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection
and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of
these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the
synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. 

Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates
upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH
River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next
several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below
freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level
saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing.
Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment
lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+
inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period.

..Moore.. 02/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON   39078529 40128346 40368289 40838105 40987996 40967914
            40867850 40627792 40337768 40067754 39707765 39477780
            38457893 38267929 38127958 38077995 38098052 38438436
            38468482 38538512 38638531 38848542 39078529 

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