ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161826 
SPC MCD 161826 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Areas affected...much of Arkansas and from the ArkLaTex into
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161826Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated strong storms capable of producing hail
are expected to form over parts of Arkansas this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push into northeast TX and
into northern and western AR, while warming and destabilization take
place to the east. Visible satellite shows areas of heating over AR
with only thin high clouds extending southwestward into TX. Very
cold temperatures exist aloft, and as such, continued heating
combined with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be more than
sufficient to result in an uncapped air mass.

Forecast soundings show the potential for low-topped but robust
thunderstorms, while veering low-level flow roughly parallel to the
front favors cells capable of hail. Some boundary layer mixing of
the dewpoints may occur, but heating is expected to compensate, with
storms forming near the cold front later this afternoon.

..Jewell/Hart.. 02/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35169093 34819086 34339100 33789162 33309280 33009375
            32909419 33159462 33769473 34969370 35579306 35679217
            35509140 35169093 

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