ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 121016 SPC MCD 121016 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121245- Mesoscale Discussion 0137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Areas affected...parts of far southeastern Mississippi...southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...23... Valid 121016Z - 121245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22, 23 continues. SUMMARY...While the ongoing, slowly eastward advancing line of storms may continue to weaken into and beyond daybreak, intensifying new thunderstorm development ahead of it may begin to pose increasing potential for at least severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow appears to trending increasingly difluent across the north central into northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, as a significant upstream short wave trough begins to take on more of a neutral to negative tilt across the southern Great Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Beneath this regime, increasing large-scale ascent, aided by low-level warm advection, likely is contributing to an increase in convective development offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Across and inland of the coastal waters a shallow moist adiabatic or more stable near-surface layer appears to linger based on model forecast soundings. However, CAPE for slightly elevated most unstable parcels might be as high as 1000 J/kg, which may support a continuing increase and intensification of this newer thunderstorm development. Latest trends appear to support the High Resolution Rapid Refresh depiction that this will become the most prominent thunderstorm activity into and beyond daybreak, while the trailing ongoing pre-frontal line of thunderstorms dissipates. It appears that this may coincide with notable strengthening of a southerly low-level jet off the Gulf of Mexico (40-50+ kt around 850 mb), with forecasts soundings exhibiting enlarging low-level hodographs at least somewhat more conducive to supercells structures potentially supportive of a risk for tornadoes. Otherwise, stronger new thunderstorm development may gradually pose increasing potential for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30158885 31098837 31678769 31708655 31778553 30848535 30258516 29728609 29368737 29278885 29518929 30158885 NNNN