ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111442 
SPC MCD 111442 
TXZ000-111615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 111442Z - 111615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes should increase this morning as thunderstorms
move eastward. New watch issuance is likely soon.

DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells have recently strengthened
across south-central/southeast TX between Austin/San Antonio and the
Houston metro. This convection is located along/very near a surface
front, and its general eastward movement should allow it to remain
surface based, or very nearly so over the next few hours. Strong
southwesterly winds at mid levels will and related 45-55 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support continued updraft organization,
including maintenance of ongoing supercell intensity. Steep lapse
rates aloft and a rich/moist low-level airmass present along/south
of the boundary are already supporting moderate instability, with
MLCAPE generally 1500-2000 J/kg. Large hail, some potentially
greater than 2 inches in diameter, should be the main severe threat
in the short term. But, isolated severe/damaging winds will also be
possible in convective downdrafts. The tornado threat is a little
more uncertain, but recent VWPs from KHGX show sufficient 0-1 km
shear associated with a 30-35 kt southerly low-level jet to support
updraft rotation and some risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given that
a severe risk should persist beyond the scheduled 17Z expiration of
WW 16, additional/new watch issuance is likely soon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30369646 30889524 30999417 30259404 29749489 29649669
            29909652 30369646 

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