ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 110920 SPC MCD 110920 TXZ000-111115- Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...central into northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...16... Valid 110920Z - 111115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15, 16 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will overspread the Interstates 35 and 45 into 20 corridors of central into northeastern Texas through 5-7 AM CST, with a few embedded stronger storms posing a risk for severe hail. DISCUSSION...As the primary mid-level jet streak (including 70-90 kt around 500 mb) continues to propagate across the Texas Big Bend into the Edwards Plateau through 11-13Z, relatively warm and/or warming lower/mid-tropospheric air appears likely to be maintained above potentially unstable boundary layer air now present across the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal plain. Stronger forcing for ascent and associated convective development probably will remain focused well to the north of the quasi-stationary to slow moving warm frontal zone, now roughly near/north of San Antonio through the College Station and Huntsville vicinities. To the north of the frontal zone, forecast soundings suggest that the cool near-surface layer remains stable with regard to potential for strong downdrafts to reach the surface. Furthermore, lower tropospheric wind fields preceding the convective cluster are rather modest in strength, and there is little indication of strong lower/mid-tropospheric rear-inflow developing, despite the organized character of the elevated convection. So the potential for strong convective wind gusts appears likely to remain low through at least 11-13Z. But elevated instability and favorable cloud-bearing layer shear may continue to support locally strong embedded supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail as convection spreads across the I-35/45 into I-20 corridors of central through northeastern Texas. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32319767 32999536 32169483 31279628 30309824 30309949 30879910 31439826 32319767 NNNN