ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110726 
SPC MCD 110726 
TXZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

Valid 110726Z - 110930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread
east-northeastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor of north
central and central Texas through 3-5 AM CST.  This activity may
continue to pose some risk for severe hail and gusty winds, mainly
near/north of the Junction through Austin vicinities.

DISCUSSION...Stronger flow around the 500 mb level is still nosing
into areas near/north of the Texas Big Bend.  But a more modest
preceding speed maximum, which likely has provided support for the
evolving ongoing cluster of storms, is forecast to continue
propagating north-northeastward across central Texas through 09-11Z.


The associated convection likely will remain rooted within lift
associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, above cold
surface-based air now nosing south-southeast of the Texas South
Plains.  North of the Junction/Kerrville/Austin/College Station
vicinities, a more modestly cool and stable near-surface layer is
not likely to modify much in advance of the convection.  However,
elevated instability and cloud-bearing layer shear may remain
sufficient to continue supporting some risk for severe hail and
gusty winds, particularly near the southern flank of the convective
system passing near/north of the Junction and Austin vicinities. 
Farther south, where mid/upper forcing for ascent becomes more
negligible, warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air is
forecast to inhibit convective development.

..Kerr.. 02/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31429922 32429854 32119668 30629761 29989967 30610013
            31429922 

NNNN