ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042130 COR
SPC MCD 042130 COR
FLZ000-GAZ000-042330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 042130Z - 042330Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING IN GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornadoes
will continue for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis places a triple point low near ABY
in southwest GA. A warm front extends east-southeastward from this
low across southern GA, while a surface trough extends southeastward
through central portions of northern FL into the central FL
Peninsula. The airmass downstream of the surface trough has
destabilized amid filtered daytime heating and cold temperatures
aloft (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500-mb). Low-topped convection is
developing along the surface trough, and then moving
north-northeasterly with the mean wind into more of
north-central/northeast FL. Temperature profiles are suitable for
surface-based storms, although the overall magnitude of the buoyancy
is mitigated by relatively modest low-level moisture. General
expectation is for a continuation of low-topped thunderstorms, with
occasional supercells capable of damaging gusts and/or hail. Given
the veering low-level wind profiles, there is also a low-probability
chance for a tornado or two.

Farther northwest close to the low (i.e southwest GA), stronger
southeasterly low to mid-level flow result in a more northwestward
storm motion, taking storms that develop into more hostile air.
However, this storm motion also allows for more interaction with the
warm front (and associated low-level vorticity), which appears to be
contributing to brief strengthening of low-level rotation and
tornadogenesis. Narrowing of the warm sector in this region should
lead to diminishing severe potential over the next few hours. Until
then, brief tornadoes remain possible.

..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30918389 31288424 31318269 30448118 29188155 29028227
            30368308 30918389 

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