ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041901 SPC MCD 041901 FLZ000-GAZ000-042100- Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far Southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041901Z - 042100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped supercells capable of damaging gusts and brief tornadoes are possible across northern FL and far southern GA this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 35 miles north of AAF in the central FL Panhandle. A warm from extends east-northeastward from this low into extreme southeast GA/northeast FL, while a cold front arcs southeastward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, remaining mostly offshore. Radar imagery from KTLH has shown several low-topped rotating storms near the warm front just east/northeast of TLH. Given the lack of buoyancy, updrafts are likely being augmented by favorable interaction with the warm front, with the strong low-level shear then resulting in tornadogenesis. Additional development is occurring south of the warm front, and there is some chance that continued interaction with the warm front could result in another brief tornado. A somewhat separate regime is developing within the warm sector downstream of the approaching Pacific cold front. Clearing within the dry slot is allowing for filtered heating and steepening of the low-level lapse rates. At the same time, cold mid-level temperatures continue to advect over the region, with 500-mb temperatures likely dropping to -20 deg C across much of northern FL by later this afternoon. Shallow thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front across northern FL this afternoon. Veering low-level flow will be in place, and the potential for a few low-topped supercells exists. However, buoyancy will be modest and is expected to limit both updraft strength and duration, leading to uncertainty on the number and coverage of supercells. This uncertainty tempers the overall watch probability, but convective trends will be monitored closely this afternoon for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30358457 30748417 30868296 30628162 29968143 29088214 29198300 29808378 30358457 NNNN