ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041541 
SPC MCD 041541 
FLZ000-041715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

Areas affected...South FL and the Upper FL Keys

Concerning...Tornado Watch 14...

Valid 041541Z - 041715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado
continues across south Florida and the Upper Florida Keys.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a convective
line extending southward from central FL into far south FL and then
back southwestward through the Middle Keys. Buoyancy ahead of this
line remains limited by poor lapse rates and only marginally
warm/moist surface conditions. This limited buoyancy has tempered
overall storm intensity/depth, with a generally shallow character to
much of the convection. Even so, given the robust low to mid-level
flow in place, a few stronger gusts have still been reported,
including 36 and 37 kt at NQX and MTH, respectively. This trend is
forecast to continue for the next hour/hour and a half before the
line moves offshore. Recent KAMX does show a vertically veering
low-level wind profile supportive of a brief tornado or two if
greater updraft depth can be maintained.

..Mosier.. 02/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24378130 24968084 25728069 26148065 26448059 26528022
            26278004 25508015 24908053 24378130 

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