ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022347 
SPC MCD 022347 
OKZ000-TXZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Areas affected...extreme eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle
into far western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022347Z - 030145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind or hail are possible with
the stronger thunderstorms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
ahead of a surface cold front as a 500 mb jet streak overspreads
western TX (per 23Z mesoanalysis). These storms are preceded by 8+
C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, which should support continued
development and intensification given low to mid 60s F surface
temperatures and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings and 23Z
mesoanalysis also show weak deep-layer shear, characterized by
generally short hodographs. While some severe wind and hail cannot
be ruled out, the severe threat is expected to remain generally
isolated given the weaker shear. Storms may gradually diminish in
intensity later this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 02/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34080034 34960057 35410032 35669990 35679900 35509841
            34999816 34759822 34529874 34040000 34080034 

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