ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160832 
SPC MCD 160832 
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

Areas affected...Southern MS into central/southern AL and a small
part of northwest GA

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 160832Z - 161330Z

SUMMARY...Winter precipitation will shift eastward early this
morning. Embedded heavier showers of sleet or freezing rain will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning, a broad area of post-frontal
precipitation is ongoing from southern MS into central AL. This area
of precipitation will continue to spread eastward this morning in
conjunction with the front and a weak eastward-moving frontal wave
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Weak but nonzero MUCAPE (as
noted in the 06Z BMX sounding) will continue to support fast-moving
showers with briefly moderate precip rates embedded in the broader
light precipitation shield. 

A substantial warm nose aloft (also noted on the 06Z BMX sounding)
atop a shallow subfreezing layer at the surface will continue to
support freezing rain and sleet as the primary winter precipitation
types. Strong low-level cold advection will continue to push the
surface freezing line southeastward with time, with a transition to
freezing rain expected into parts of south-central AL, southern MS,
and northwest GA, where temperatures are currently above 32F.
Deepening cold air beneath the warm nose will support primarily
sleet across the northwest portion of the precipitation shield. Some
oscillation between freezing rain and sleet is possible within the
transition zone.

..Dean.. 01/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31278928 31908844 32538767 33008710 33768617 34158535
            34148498 33808495 33068514 32898522 32478535 32128557
            31428669 30828792 30178932 30178962 30288978 30528998
            30748983 31278928 

NNNN