ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160132 
SPC MCD 160132 
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern
AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 160132Z - 160600Z

SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and
sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a
continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA
northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is
generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic
circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region.
This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and
quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward
evolution of the frontogenetic band with time. 

The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a
substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb
temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt
before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain
will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward
northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and
minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While
dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor
imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for
ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary
forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate
freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates
possible in the more robust cores. 

Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and
support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the
next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS).

..Weinman.. 01/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530
            35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025
            29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318 

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