ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 141649 SPC MCD 141649 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-142045- Mesoscale Discussion 0063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New York into the New England region Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 141649Z - 142045Z SUMMARY...Thermodynamic conditions will remain favorable for snow squalls as a cold front pushes east into the New England region. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar depicts broken bands of shallow convection along an eastward moving cold front from upstate NY into eastern PA. Visibility reductions between 1/4 to 1 mile have been observed with the passage of these bands and are primarily being driven by bursts of moderate to heavy snow with 25-35 mph wind gusts. The 12 UTC PIT sounding likely sampled the convective environment most accurately with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to ~750 mb, which appears to be represented well by recent 0-3 km lapse rate analyses. The plume of 8+ C/km low-level lapse rates is forecast to spread to the northeast into the New England region through the day in tandem with the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the primary trough axis. Low-level instability should be bolstered by modest diurnal heating between cloud breaks through the afternoon, and a weak influx of moisture may support occasional lightning flashes, though sustained, lightning-producing convection is not necessarily anticipated. Nonetheless, the combination of improving low-level thermodynamics, focused ascent along the front, and 30-40 mph winds within the boundary layer should maintain the snow squall potential well into the afternoon. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40817558 41267567 42257496 44237351 44587283 44747124 44797089 44607048 44146998 43776984 43257045 42577077 41467167 41237225 41187286 40497484 40817558 NNNN