ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 121214 SPC MCD 121214 TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121345- Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Extreme southwest TN...Extreme northeast LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 121214Z - 121345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will continue through sunrise. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR (KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection remains somewhat elevated. In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this morning. ..Dean.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989 32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209 33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093 NNNN