ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120713 
SPC MCD 120713 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-120915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Areas affected...Northeast AR...Western TN...Extreme northwest
MS...MO Bootheel region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 120713Z - 120915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts is
expected early this morning. Short-term watch issuance is unlikely,
though another round of potentially severe storms is expected later
this morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple bowing storm clusters are moving across
east-central/northeast AR early this morning, with observed wind
gusts in the 40-45 kt (with one 54 kt gust recently noted at KARG in
the wake of the line) and potentially large hail noted in MRMS data.
These storms are generally northeast of the primary low-level moist
axis, and will likely continue to be somewhat elevated as they move
east-northeastward toward western TN and the MO Bootheel region.
However, steepening midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer
flow/shear (as noted in the 06Z LZK sounding and regional VWPs) in
advance of a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue
to support organized convection early this morning, with some threat
for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. 

Given the somewhat elevated nature of the ongoing storms and a
likely tendency for this convection to move out of the primary
instability axis, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. However,
another round of organized convection is expected later this
morning, as the upstream shortwave and its attendant strong forcing
and powerful flow fields overspread the region.

..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36499058 36728991 36678924 36138923 35628917 34958952
            34728977 34558993 34519031 34599059 34689077 34889087
            35359086 36499058 

NNNN