ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091832 
SPC MCD 091832 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected...Eastern/Central North Carolina and southern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 091832Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong southeasterly flow is destabilizing eastern North
Carolina and southern Virginia. This will increase the severe
weather threat this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Instability is currently weak across much of North
Carolina. However, southeasterly moisture advection is gradually
destabilizing the airmass. By later this afternoon, some damaging
wind threat is expected to materialize as the squall line moves into
more substantial Gulf Stream moisture. Given the very strong wind
field, even the current weak instability could support some damaging
wind gusts with the threat increasing through the afternoon. The
strong low-level speed and directional shear will support some
tornado threat, but mid 60s dewpoints will likely be needed for a
more substantial threat, which will not arrive until later this
afternoon across eastern North Carolina.

A watch will be issued soon to address this threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35618023 36108034 36448043 36758043 37017936 37117857
            37007748 36317702 35737698 34917672 34677671 34517703
            34247752 33807783 33677800 33687836 34707955 35618023 

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