ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 090103 SPC MCD 090103 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-090300- Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS/AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 2... Valid 090103Z - 090300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues. SUMMARY...All severe hazards remain possible across Tornado Watch 2. An additional isolated hail and wind risk may extend just outside of the watch across parts of southern Mississippi/Alabama in the short term. DISCUSSION...Warm advection storms continue to shift northeast across parts of southeast LA into southern MS/AL. This convection is elevated and to the cool side of a warm front draped across southern LA, and extending just offshore from MS/AL. Strong vertical shear, as evident in very large and curved hodographs in regional VWP data, will allow for some maintenance and organization of stronger updrafts despite weakening instability with northward extent. These stronger cells will pose some risk for hail given modest midlevel lapse rates and favorable shear, as well as an isolated risk for strong gusts. A cold front and associated line of convection is currently oriented from northeast to southwest LA, and will continue to shift east overnight. A narrow warm sector currently confined to far southern LA will continue to support tornado potential with any convection that may develop ahead of the eastward advancing line of convection, or within the line itself with any QLCS/mesovortex circulations. The warm front will gradually lift northward overnight as a surface low deepens as lifts northeast across the Lower MS/TN Valley. This will allow higher-quality Gulf moisture moving into far southern MS/AL and eventually the western FL Panhandle. Portions of WW 2, which expires at 03z, may need to be included in a new tornado watch, which would extend downstream into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. ..Leitman.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31019110 31238939 31408824 31308724 30888683 30398679 30098698 29658751 29088839 29018929 29049079 29209128 30209145 30719152 31019110 NNNN