ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 061551 SPC MCD 061551 FLZ000-061715- Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061551Z - 061715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico. Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising into the mid 70s F. Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this morning into the early afternoon. Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075 25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254 26938255 27388248 NNNN