ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301900 
SPC MCD 301900 
GAZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CST Thu Dec 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301900Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop and continue for
at least a few more hours. Damaging gusts are the main threat,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance farther south of
the main thunderstorm band in central Alabama/Georgia is unlikely
given the sparse nature of the severe threat, though convective
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slowly increasing in number and
intensity within a modest confluence band across southern into
central Georgia. KJGX radar shows that some of these storms recently
acquired supercell structure. These storms are developing in a
weakly forced environment, and are mainly fueled by deep low-level
moisture contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 18Z
mesoanalysis). The presence of 40+ kts effective bulk shear will
promote continued organization with the more persistent updrafts.
However, some of the latest JGX VWPs depict short, modestly curved
hodographs. When taking into account the overall weak deep-layer
ascent, the weaker and veered low-level flow will limit the severe
threat to a degree, though damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
could still occur. Nonetheless, the isolated nature of the severe
threat suggests that a WW issuance is unlikely.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30948493 31668454 32268340 32308238 32248146 32078118
            31918119 31548181 31188279 30878376 30748470 30948493 

NNNN