ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110154 
SPC MCD 110154 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest Missouri into northwest
Arkansas and extreme eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 553...556...

Valid 110154Z - 110400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 553, 556 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 553 and
556. Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the main threats,
though a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger, more
sustained supercellular storms.

DISCUSSION...Another line of semi-discrete thunderstorms have
recently developed across the western fringe of the warm sector,
within Tornado Watches 533 and 556. Surface temperatures exceeding
70F, with low 60s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level
lapse rates (per latest mesoanalysis) are contributing to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE, suggesting that strong to severe storms will continue
across the Watch areas for at least a few more hours. All severe
hazards have recently been observed with some of the stronger
storms. While a strong LLJ is contributing to significant low-level
speed shear (with 200-300 0-1 km and effective SRH noted by the
latest SRX and SGF VWPs), these VWPs also show decreasing hodograph
curvature, potentially limiting the tornado threat to a degree.
Nonetheless, large hail and damaging gusts are still expected to
continue, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the
overall magnitudes of the low-level shear.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34789539 36659383 37859311 38129255 38209151 37889120
            37279155 36319236 35859270 35499310 34999378 34749419
            34789539 

NNNN