ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110134 
SPC MCD 110134 
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central and eastern
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...555...

Valid 110134Z - 110300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552, 555 continues.

SUMMARY...An uptick in the severe threat, including strong
tornadoes, appears evident across southwest into east-central
Arkansas. The locally higher tornado threat may persist with the
more dominant supercells for at least a few hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storms, including sustained supercells, have
recently organized across portions of central and eastern Arkansas,
with a discrete supercell also entering far southwest Arkansas. MRMS
mosaic radar shows intense low-level rotation tracks associated with
the more dominant supercells just north of LZK, and these storms are
expected to progress across a moist, unstable/minimally capped
environment. The latest VWPs from SHV to NQA depict long, curved
hodographs given the presence of a broad, intense LLJ overspreading
the area. These VWPs and 01Z mesoanalysis depict 0-1 km and
effective SRH in the 250-400 m2/s2 range, supporting the risk for
sustained, strong tornadoes across southwest into eastern AR for at
least the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33749450 35059249 35699171 35869092 35799038 35659020
            35259013 34829031 34489129 34009274 33589421 33749450 

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