ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 051022 SPC MCD 051022 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-051615- Mesoscale Discussion 1957 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Areas affected...central and northeastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 051022Z - 051615Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snowfall will shift gradually eastward and northward across central and northeastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and into western Upper Michigan. Rates exceeding 1" per hour are expected in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...A mid-level vort max -- now crossing southern and eastern North Dakota per water vapor imagery -- is forecast to dig east-southeastward with time. As this occurs, a north-northwest to east-southeast zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent will persist, as southerly low-level flow near 50 kt shifts eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley region through midday. This ascent will allow a band of moderate to heavy snowfall -- currently ongoing from north-central North Dakota to east-central Wisconsin -- to continue. With time, the band is expected to drift slowly northward, focusing from central/northeastern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin/western Upper Michigan through late morning. As this occurs, some increase in intensity of the band is expected, corresponding with some enhancement in snowfall rates with time. Within the heaviest portions of the band, snowfall rates in the 1" to 1 1/2" per hour range are expected. As the upper system advances, a gradual west-to-east shift of the area of heaviest snowfall is expected, tapering with time across North Dakota, and spreading across Lake Michigan toward northern Lower Michigan through late morning. ..Goss.. 12/05/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47329481 47759350 47889178 47819051 47178983 46218744 45528718 45068746 44908945 45539075 46569332 46669485 47329481 NNNN