ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211902 
SPC MCD 211902 
ARZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211902Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in number this
afternoon and evening across Arkansas. Hail and gusty thunderstorm
winds may be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. However, any
severe potential should remain too isolated to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...An isolated intense thunderstorm is currently moving
across Jackson County in northern Arkansas. This thunderstorm has a
history of producing nickel-sized hail across Independence County.
The expectation is that additional thunderstorms should develop
across Arkansas this afternoon and evening in the vicinity of an
approaching cold front.

The overall thermodynamic environment appears marginal-at-best to
support large hail and severe criteria surface winds. However,
strong tropospheric shear and dynamic storm-scale processes may
support hail, generally around 1 inch, and strong, gusty
thunderstorm winds capable of damage with the strongest
thunderstorms. 

Given the highly isolated nature of the expected threat, a watch is
not expected.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 11/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34429396 35019349 35959178 36019074 35769017 35169036
            34249102 33789133 33459194 33569290 33749379 33989412
            34429396 

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