ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 101926 SPC MCD 101926 OKZ000-KSZ000-102130- Mesoscale Discussion 1935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Areas affected...the central third of Oklahoma and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101926Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...WW issuance is expected this afternoon -- possibly around 21Z -- in anticipation of storm development near/ahead of an advancing surface front. All-hazards severe weather -- including potential for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes -- is expected. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows deepening cumulus development across northwestern Oklahoma near the western edge of a broad cloud shield, where insolation/boundary-layer destabilization is occurring. Farther east, breaks in the cloud shield are evident, contributing to an expanding zone of 1000-plus J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now indicated by objective analyses. The current flow field across this region is sufficient for updraft organization/rotation, with low-level southerly flow veering/increasing to southwesterly at 50 kt at mid levels, per the latest KTLX WSR-88D VWP. As such, initial storm development will likely become supercellular, with very large hail possible along with potential for locally strong wind gusts. Tornado threat would also exist locally, near any of these initial storms. With time, storm mode is expected to become more linear, as main convective initiation focuses along the advancing cold front. As such, greater wind risk along with a concurrent decrease in potential for very large hail is expected into the evening. Some tornado threat may linger, though shear does not appear overly favorable for substantial/numerous low-level QLCS circulations. ..Goss/Guyer.. 11/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36429822 37239753 37249735 37209631 36489600 34639674 34339713 34539846 35449858 36429822 NNNN