ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101653 
SPC MCD 101653 
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-101900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101653Z - 101900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
early-mid afternoon across parts of eastern KS into southeast NE. 
It is uncertain whether a watch will be needed, but trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently formed in
Sedgwick/Harvey counties KS.  Other convection is beginning to form
farther northeast near MHK.  All of this activity is associated with
increasing large-scale forcing ahead of a shortwave trough moving
into western KS.  Moderately strong south-southwesterly low-level
winds in this area are enhancing warm advection, and are
transporting a more moist air mass into the area.  Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear, along with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures, to pose a risk of hail in
the stronger cells.  Gusty/damaging winds or even brief spin-ups may
also become a threat this afternoon if convection can sufficiently
organize and take advantage of the backed near-surface winds.  All
of this is tempered by widespread cloud cover and variability among
CAMs regarding the evolution of storms.  Convective trends will be
monitored for increasing organization and the possibility of a watch
in the next few hours.

..Hart/Guyer.. 11/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39439730 40029690 40589589 40419521 39619521 38779565
            38119628 37669714 37949743 39439730 

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