ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281551 
SPC MCD 281551 
FLZ000-281745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Areas affected...northern through central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

Valid 281551Z - 281745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes will persist into the afternoon across northern through
central Florida.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms extends from near
Jacksonville Fl southwest to northwest of the Tampa Bay area. The
boundary layer is undergoing destabilization south of a warm front
that extends from northern FL southeast to off the eastern FL coast
with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Potential still exists for a few
discrete storms/supercells to develop ahead of the line, but primary
severe threat will probably occur as the line moves east through the
Peninsula. VWP data show 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 150-200
m2/s2, but some veering of the low-level winds may occur with time,
suggesting hodograph size will remain modest. Nevertheless,
effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized
structures embedded within the line, maintaining a threat for
isolated damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes into the afternoon.

..Dial.. 10/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27648274 29098236 29878207 29928144 29118101 28508116
            26628123 26778230 27648274 

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