ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250333 
SPC MCD 250333 
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-250600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Areas affected...southeast Missouri...central and southern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...

Valid 250333Z - 250600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two
persists across the watch area, and generally will decrease with
time and eastward extent.

DISCUSSION...Storms have largely transitioned to a more linear storm
mode as opposed to isolated supercells, most notably over southeast
MO where an earlier cluster outbreak of tornadoes occurred. Various
storms appear to contain damaging wind potential, with a few severe
gusts measured recently. Shear remains strong across the area ahead
of the cold front which now extends from western IL into southeast
MO.

Surface observations show relatively drier trajectories across TN
and KY, with 50s dewpoints into IN and parts of southeastern IL. As
such, the greatest severe threat in the short term will remain from
central IL into southeast MO where dewpoints remain in the 60s F
with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Transient supercells remain possible,
either in isolated or embedded within the lines.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   39628781 38958806 37998834 37638849 37258894 36818955
            36569036 36559173 36799179 37369106 38119028 38698987
            39438972 40278996 40488955 40458903 40268820 40088785
            39888769 39628781 

NNNN