ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161609 
SPC MCD 161609 
VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Areas affected...Northeast NY...Western VT...Far Western MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161609Z - 161815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow line of storms is expected to develop and move
east-northeastward this afternoon across northeast NY into western
VT and far western MA. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of brief
tornadoes are possible.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms moving across northern NY
have shown a gradual strengthening trend over the past hour or so.
At the same time the downstream air mass across northeast NY and
adjacent western VT/far western MA continues to warm and
destabilize. Low-level southerly flow has also been strengthening
during this time (sampled well by the CXX VAD). Poor lapse rates
should keep buoyancy modest, but the strong forcing for ascent and
favorable vertical shear will still likely result in a narrow
convective line capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a
tornado or two. The tornado threat appears to be relatively greater
across in the NY/VT border vicinity where temperatures have climbed
into the low/mid 70s amid mid 60s dewpoints. One or more watches
(including the potential for a tornado watch along the NY/VT border)
will likely be needed soon to address this developing severe threat.

..Mosier/Grams.. 10/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44247456 44857404 44987321 44277272 42177307 42517496
            44247456 

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