ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151952 
SPC MCD 151952 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...Arkansas into western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...

Valid 151952Z - 152145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered damaging gusts and brief periods of hail remain
possible. The threat may eventually spread east of WW 527 and
farther into Kentucky/Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Several strong to occasionally severe storms have
formed along the front in central AR, beneath strong, front-parallel
deep shear. Gradual destabilization has taken place with heating
ahead of the front, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg common at 20Z.
Other storms were also evident over western KY and TN where theta-e
continues to increase with southwest surface winds.

Low-level shear remains weak, resulting in long, straight
hodographs. The primary result should be forward-tilted storms with
straight-line wind potential, as well as marginally severe hail. 

However, later this evening, 850 mb flow is forecast to increase
ahead of the front into parts of TN and KY, and a brief tornado may
become more likely at that time, dependent on an unstable boundary
layer. As such, additional watches could become necessary downstream
of WW 527 later today.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   37108810 37248765 37078733 36728718 36128712 35778727
            35368822 33749288 33839327 34139345 34529337 34999282
            35929132 37108810 

NNNN