ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 130030 SPC MCD 130030 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-130230- Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 523... Valid 130030Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 523 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across WW 523. The greatest near-term threat will remain across western OK associated with isolated supercells, but a second round of storms remains likely later this evening. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows a few supercells moving north/northeastward across far north Texas and western Oklahoma. The west-central OK supercell has exhibited strong low-level rotation, indicating that the ample low-level shear over the region (200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the KFDR VWP and analyzed in recent RAP mesoanalysis) is compensating for lingering mixed-layer inhibition. The tornado threat associated with this storm will continue for the near term, and may persist into the late evening hours as low-level wind fields strengthen in response to the deepening surface low to the north. Additional discrete cells are possible across southwest OK and/or the eastern TX Panhandle along the warm front within the next 1-2 hours, but weak forcing for ascent, substantial mid-level dry air entrainment, and the onset of diurnal cooling make confidence in discrete storm coverage uncertain. Latest hi-res guidance has depicted this potential, but run-to-run consistency has been somewhat poor, further reducing confidence. Additional storms are likely later this evening/overnight as stronger lift associated with the approach of the main upper-level wave (manifesting as increasing showers and weak convection over the southern High Plains) overspreads the region. Increasingly meridional flow along the initiating cold front will support mostly linear storm modes, but increasing low-level shear within the warm sector should maintain a QLCS tornado threat over the watch area. ..Moore.. 10/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34500004 34920063 35460117 36180145 36790146 37010086 36829988 36679951 36149884 35329834 34639813 34259816 34069842 34029859 34039936 34500004 NNNN