ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110432 
SPC MCD 110432 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Western
AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...

Valid 110432Z - 110630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue shifting east across the
remainder of ww519 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is strengthening along the OK/AR border late this
evening. As a result, low-level shear is quite strong across the
warm sector where adequate buoyancy continues to reside. Latest
diagnostic data suggests the current squall line is advancing
through the instability axis and subsequent movement appreciably
east of the current watch should result in weaker updrafts due to
lower boundary-layer dew points. However, stronger updrafts along
the squall line, that extends across eastern OK, continue to exhibit
transient supercellular characteristics at times. These features
have been mostly responsible for brief tornado reports as the squall
line advances east. These robust structures will likely persist
until convection propagates east of the greater buoyancy, east of
ww519.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33859590 37499593 37499394 33849400 33859590 

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