ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012212 
SPC MCD 012212 
TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021

Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012212Z - 012345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue to pose a risk for severe
hail for a few more hours this evening, however, watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few isolated storms have
developed over parts of southeast New Mexico, with MESH core values
approaching 1-1.5 inches in the strongest cells. This activity is
occurring along the western periphery of a weak instability axis,
characterized by MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, which is collocated beneath a
closed upper-level low coincident with cool mid-level temperatures
(-15 C at 500 mb) and modest deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
bulk shear). This environment should continue to favor robust yet
somewhat transient updrafts capable of producing severe hail for a
few more hours this evening before gradually diminishing with the
loss of surface heating. Given the isolated nature of the threat,
watch issuance is unlikely for the region.

..Karstens/Hart.. 10/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   29740330 30460423 32010474 33580459 34730396 35170283
            34120220 32040203 30450232 29740330 

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