ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 292013 
SPC MCD 292013 
TXZ000-292215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Wed Sep 29 2021

Areas affected...Parts of northwest Texas into the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292013Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of producing marginally severe hail
and locally strong wind gusts are possible into the 5-7 PM CDT time
frame.

DISCUSSION...With strong daytime heating and deep boundary-layer
mixing to its west, the dryline has sharpened, roughly west of
Wichita Falls southward toward Junction.  Mixed-layer CAPE is
maximizing (on the order of 2000 J/kg) in a narrow corridor along
and to its east, with the initiation of scattered thunderstorm
development ongoing, ahead of weak lower/mid tropospheric troughing.
 Deep-layer mean flow and shear are generally weak, but veering with
height might still be sufficient to support occasional isolated
supercell structures with the potential to produce severe hail.  

Sustained storms may tend to slowly advect east of the dryline, but
they are expected to weaken with inflow of less unstable air. 
However, the dryline probably will remain the focus for renewed
vigorous thunderstorm development into early evening, before the
boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 09/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31669958 32229950 33079891 33959883 33989816 33099785
            31139912 31189973 31669958 

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